Week of July 27 – August 2, 2026

Generated Monday, August 3, 2026 at 8:52 AM PT · Data pulled Monday, August 3, 2026 at 8:50 AM PT

Northbeam Omni GA4 Meta Klaviyo Daily Stand Gorgias Instagram Google Trends News Apify Fairing Intelligems

⚠ Called to your attention — auto-review

🔴 Kill the ASC scaling variant of the founder/mushroom-coffee concept — $33.5K/28d at $211 CAC, P(beats target) 1%. conv_og_costperresult_ASC_scaling_FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee is +74% CAC over the 4-wk trend on the same creative family whose ABO sibling holds $182. Move that budget into og_video_ingr_mo mushroom-coffee comparison (the one SCALE flag: $143 CAC, 100% confidence on $41K/28d) at +20%.
🔴 Kill the July 4th and summer promo residue still spending post-promo. og_static_4x5_promo (July 4th pink background) burned $11.4K at $254 CAC; og_WK-28 Taharrabenham summer-promo $3.8K at $282; conv_pur_sandbox_promos_all_CBO ran $8K this week at $259. Combined ~$23K/wk in promo-tagged spend at 2–3× target — pull it and reallocate to the ABO winners' concept.
🔴 Concept concentration risk: one campaign is 49% of Meta and one concept is 37% of Meta. conv_mixed_scale_legacy+winners_lc_all_ABO_scale carries $83K/wk at $164 CAC; the "conv og sales abo" concept holds 37.1% of Meta spend. The #2 campaign (CBO_Winners_Incremental) runs $236 CAC on 20% of spend — there is no healthy second engine. Get a non-founder-vs-mushroom-coffee concept into test this week.
🔴 Amazon ad spend has reported $0 for 11 straight days (Jul 22 – Aug 2) — fix the Northbeam connection before anyone quotes the Amazon-inclusive CAC again. Traced to source this morning: Northbeam reports $6,093 of Amazon spend for Jul 18 – Aug 1, and that total is entirely Jul 18–21 ($1,963 + $1,824 + $1,914 + $392). Nothing since. The $392 partial day on Jul 21 is the signature of a feed dropping mid-day, not a media decision. Meanwhile Amazon is still credited ~130–170 new customers/day (967 last week), so the one lens carrying an Amazon-inclusive target reads $83.93 when it should read ~$88 — about $4/customer of free credit. Third consecutive week this has surfaced; the cause is now identified. Check the Amazon Ads integration in Northbeam, then re-run the tracker backfill.
🟡 Exit trajectory: Monday Jul 27 opened the week at $140 D2C CAC, then Wed–Fri ran $114–$124. Weekly D2C CAC $122.89. The weekend split hard in both directions once the tracker was repaired: Sat Aug 1 was the week's best day at $104.23, Sun Aug 2 its second worst at $133.00. So the week did not settle into the mid-$110s — it ended volatile. Watch condition: if Mon Aug 3 / Tue Aug 4 re-breach $135+ on D2C with no promo pressure, the Monday-spike pattern is structural (likely weekend-lag creative rotation), not noise.
⚪ Three CAC lenses for the exec read: scorecard blended $123 (target <$85), tracker D2C $122.89 (target <$90), tracker blended incl. Amazon $83.93 (target <$75). All three sit above target; D2C came down 1.8% WoW and Amazon-inclusive 0.9%. Do not read the $83.93 Amazon-inclusive lens as "near target" — it should read ~$88 once the broken Amazon spend feed is repaired (see the Amazon callout above), and every lens is over regardless.
⚪ YouTube on click CAC alone is not a kill call, and Google on click CAC alone is not a scale call. YouTube read $296 on $20K click CAC this week; the 12-mo 0.46× prior puts survey-implied ~$135–150. Google read $82 blended but brand + shop-brand alone were $37 on 259 NCs — the non-brand campaigns ($161–$465 CAC) are the honest number. If a real budget swing hangs on either channel, run the holdout, not the cut.

This report was generated by hand because the 6am cron failed, so two CI-only credentials were unavailable: Fairing (survey-implied CAC lens and the weekly WoM baseline — 12-mo priors used instead) and Gorgias (the CX section). Neither is an outage; both work in the automated run. Google Trends, by contrast, is genuinely broken — it returned an HTML block page instead of JSON for every term. Intelligems file was stale (Jul 20 week) and ignored. Why this report was late: nobody created the Daily Stand "August 2026" tab until midday Aug 3, which killed the Daily Spend Tracker's 4am job on Aug 1, 2 and 3 before it could build its own August tab — and the same missing tab failed this report's 6am cron, since Google rejects an entire batch read if one range is bad. Both pipelines were repaired and re-run, so every figure here covers the full 7 days. Tracker and Daily Stand now agree exactly on D2C CAC ($122.89). The tracker re-run also revised prior-week daily CAC slightly upward (an AppLovin channel rename), so last week's D2C CAC reads $125.09 rather than the $125.17 published on Jul 27.

✅ Going well

MER climbed to 3.01x from 2.79x on $770K revenue and slightly lower $256K spend — first week back above the 3.0x target in several weeks.
og_video_ingr_mo mushroom-coffee comparison is a genuine SCALE candidate: $143 CAC on $41K/28d spend, 100% confidence beats target. That's the ad to lean into.
Email delivered $170K (~22% of revenue) at 55.3% average open rate; three PSL "whisper" sends carried 80% of campaign revenue with Jul 29 resend at $58K.
Brand + Shop-Brand Google search drove 259 NCs at $37 blended click CAC — hygiene channel doing its job (with the caveat this is intent capture, not new demand).

❌ Going poorly

Meta click CAC $224 on 66% of D2C spend with CTR down to 0.63% (from 0.79%) — the volume engine is expensive and getting less clicky. One campaign is 49% of the channel with no viable #2.
Active subs at 108,702, down 1,285 WoW and ~9.5% over 13 weeks (120K → 109K). Negative every day of the week; this is beyond a Recharge cycle blip.
Site CVR 1.79% and NC CVR 0.95% (from 1.47%) — sessions grew 8.6% but purchases +2.1% and new customers roughly flat. Warm CVR slipped from 2.39% to 2.11% on 17% more warm sessions.
The two $25 OFF push sends drew 0.24–0.25% click rates for $1.7K–$2.3K each — below the 0.3% floor, subject/preview likely broken.

💬 Worth discussing

YouTube at $20K/wk and $296 click CAC: the 12-mo 0.46× prior says survey-implied is closer to $135–150, but we haven't proven incrementality. Tradeoff — a $10K/wk YouTube holdout for 3–4 weeks would settle whether this is a hidden winner or dead weight. Worth spending the test budget?
Concept concentration on the founder-vs-mushroom-coffee family: it's carrying the account at ~$180 ABO CAC but the ASC scaling variant already broke. Do we accept the fragility and keep milking it, or force a second concept into test now at the cost of near-term CAC?
Sub decline is 9.5% over 13 weeks with weekly cohort NCs still 300/day. That's a retention problem, not an acquisition one — but the report doesn't see cancel reasons this week (CX data wasn't pulled in this manual run — Gorgias itself is fine). Is the pattern a promo-cohort churn tail from spring, or something structural? Worth a cohort retention pull before any acquisition-side response.

❓ Not sure yet

Word-of-mouth and survey-implied channel shares this week — Fairing didn't pull. Another week of API-connected data will re-anchor whether YouTube/podcast/WoM shares moved.
Whether the Monday $140 D2C CAC spike is a real pattern or one noisy day — need Mon Aug 3 / Tue Aug 4 tracker prints to confirm.
Shopify-side site CVR (Intelligems) — file was stale for this week, so we can't cross-check GA4's 1.79% purchaser CVR against an independent Shopify-side sensor. A fresh Intelligems pull next run resolves it.

Scorecard

13-week trends — solid line is 2026, dashed is 2025 YoY

SPEND · Daily Spend Tracker NEW CUSTOMERS · Daily Spend Tracker (Shopify truth) REVENUE · Omni (Total Revenue) CAC = SPEND ÷ NEW CUSTOMERS D2C + AMAZON CAC LENSES · Tracker monthly tabs (targets <$90 / <$75) CPM/CTR · Northbeam

Volume & Efficiency — Last 12 Weeks

NCs/Day Blended CAC Target

Daily D2C CAC — Last 14 Days (exit trajectory)

Daily D2C CAC $90 Target

$770K

Revenue

↑ 6.4% WoW

Last week: $723K

$256K

Ad Spend

↓ 1.4% WoW

Last week: $260K

3.01x

MER

↑ 7.9% WoW

Last week: 2.79x • Target: >3.0

$123

Blended CAC

↓ 2.4% WoW

Last week: $126 • Target: <$85

$122.89

D2C CAC (tracker)

↓ 1.8% WoW

Full 7 days • Last week: $125.09 • Target: <$90. Matches the Daily Stand read exactly ($255,977 ÷ 2,083).

$83.93

Blended CAC incl. Amazon ⚠ understated

↓ 0.9% WoW

Amazon ad spend has read $0 since Jul 22 while Amazon still gets credited ~130–170 NCs/day (967 last week). True figure is roughly $88 • Last week: $84.72 • Target: <$75

298/day

New Customers

↑ 0.9% WoW

Last week: 295/day • Target: 600

$48.55

iAOV

↔ ~flat

Omni revenue ÷ orders

1.79%

Site CVR (GA4 purchaser)

↓ 0.11pt WoW

Last week: 1.90% • Target: >2.0%

$27.85

CPM

↓ 3.5% WoW

Last week: $28.87

0.71%

CTR

↓ 10% WoW

Last week: 0.79%

CAC — Two Lenses (click vs. survey-implied)

CLICK CAC · Northbeam clicks-only SURVEY CAC · spend ÷ (Fairing share × tracker D2C NCs) · small channels noisy weekly — see the attribution deep dive for the 12-mo view

CAC by channel — Northbeam clicks vs Fairing survey-implied

■ Northbeam (clicks) ■ Fairing (survey-implied)

Channel	Spend	Click NCs	Click CAC	Survey Share	Survey NCs	Survey CAC	Read
Data unavailable this period — fairing unavailable

Revenue was $770K on $256K spend, MER 3.01x (vs. 2.79x the prior week). The three CAC lenses read differently: scorecard blended CAC $123 (target <$85), tracker D2C CAC $122.89 (target <$90), and tracker blended incl. Amazon $83.93 (target <$75) — all three sit above their respective targets, with D2C down 1.8% WoW, the Amazon-inclusive lens down 0.9%, and the legacy scorecard number down 2.4%. Note the daily spread: Mon Jul 27 opened at $140, Wed–Fri ran $114–$124, Sat Aug 1 was the week's best day at $104, and Sun Aug 2 snapped back to $133 — the weekly average hides a volatile week rather than a settling one.

D2C Funnel

Full-funnel view

IMPRESSIONS / CTR · Northbeam SESSIONS / ATC / CHECKOUT · GA4 (begin_checkout degraded since ~May 18 — directional) CVR TRUTH · Shopify orders (Omni) ÷ GA4 sessions NEW CUSTOMERS · Daily Spend Tracker

Bar width is log-scaled (real drop-offs are far steeper than any drawing can show) — read the numbers, not the shape. Between stages: the named conversion rate (CTR, ATC rate, etc.), the raw drop-off, and how that rate moved vs. last week. The red band marks this week’s biggest week-over-week deterioration. Sensor lines mark where measurement changes systems. Lanes at the bottom split site traffic by intent (cold paid landing pages vs. everything else).

Sessions rose 8.6% WoW to 152K while purchases were roughly flat at 2,729 (+2.1%), pulling GA4 purchaser CVR from 1.90% to 1.79% (target >2.0%). New-customer CVR (Shopify D2C NCs ÷ GA4 sessions) fell from 1.47% to 0.95% — sessions grew faster than acquisition. Bounce rate rose 9.8pt to 21.6%, consistent with a colder incoming traffic mix.

Channel Mix▶

Channel Mix

Channel-level performance

CHANNEL SPEND / CAC / NCs · Northbeam (Clicks Only, Cash) BLENDED TOTAL · Daily Spend Tracker

Channel Spend Mix — Last 6 Weeks

Channel	Spend	% Mix	NCs	CAC	ROAS
Facebook Ads	$168,124	66%	751	$224	0.55x
Google Ads	$31,626	12%	420	$75	2.85x
YouTube Ads	$19,623	8%	66	$296	0.58x
Impact (affiliate)	$4,931	2%	92	$54	1.90x
TikTok	$1,783	1%	1	$1,783	0.03x
Google Ads Canada	$530	<1%	9	$56	9.79x
AppLovin (Axon)	$0	<1%	2	—	—
Total (D2C tracker)	$255,979	100%	2,083	$123	3.01x

Meta held 66% of D2C spend ($168K) at $224 click CAC on 751 NCs; per the 12-month attribution lens, Meta clicks under-credit at ~0.83× so its true role is modestly larger than clicks show. Google click CAC was $75 (12% of spend, 420 NCs), but the playbook's 12-month reconciliation reads Google clicks at 2.7× over-credit — the ~$40–75 range is largely brand and intent capture. YouTube click CAC was $296 on $20K spend, roughly 2× survey-implied ($120–150 range based on its 0.46× 12-mo ratio); TikTok click CAC of $1,783 on 1 attributed NC is a click-attribution artifact per the playbook, not a channel truth.

Post-Purchase Attribution▶

Post-Purchase Attribution

"What led you to purchase today?" — new customers, self-reported (Fairing)

SURVEY · Fairing (question 2864, first orders only) Survey = claimed influence; Northbeam = last click. Divergence is signal, not error — view-heavy channels (YouTube, podcast) and word-of-mouth show up here first.

Click-Invisible Channels — Survey Share, Last 13 Weeks

Meta (~42–52%) omitted for scale — see table

Answer	Responses	Share	Prior Wk	Shift
Data unavailable this period — FAIRING_API_KEY not set

Fairing survey data unavailable this run (FAIRING_API_KEY not set), so the survey-implied CAC lens for view-heavy channels (YouTube, podcast, TV) and the word-of-mouth baseline can't be measured this week. The 12-month priors in the playbook remain the reference: Meta clicks under-credit at 0.83×, YouTube at 0.46×, Google over-credits at 2.7×, TikTok clicks are effectively zero-signal.

Meta Deep Dive▶

Meta Deep Dive

13-week trends — Facebook Ads + Facebook Ads Canada

SPEND / CAC / CPM / CTR / THUMBSTOP · Northbeam (Clicks Only) CREATIVE PREVIEWS · Meta Graph API (account 548943215677106)

CPM

$28.78 this week

CTR

0.63% this week

CAC (Northbeam)

$223 this week

New Customers

751 this week

Top 5 Campaigns by Spend

Campaign	Spend	% of Meta	NCs	CAC	ROAS
conv_mixed_scale_legacy+winners_lc_all_ABO_scale	$83,084	49%	496	$164	0.96x
conv_pur_scale_winners_cost-cap_Pur_all_CBO_Winners_Incremental	$34,399	20%	144	$236	0.20x
conv_pur_sandbox_Trybe-1_cost-cap_Incremental_CBO_Testing	$13,776	8%	35	$386	0.12x
conv_pur_sandbox_internal-content_all_ABO+_sandbox_7DC+1DET	$8,366	5%	21	$391	0.14x
conv_pur_sandbox_promos_all_CBO_sandbox	$7,992	5%	31	$259	0.25x

Scale & Kill — Meta Ads, Trailing 28 Days

Statistical: SCALE / KILL only when confident vs target CAC · one week is never enough data — WAIT is honest · interactive scatter: Creative Analytics

SCALE 1 WAIT 148 KILL 50target $172 · 95% confidence · 28d window · 38 zero-NC ads off the chart

Each ad — 28-day spend (log) vs new-customer CAC

● scale ● wait ● kill

Status	Ad	Spend 28d	NCs 28d	CAC 28d	P(beats target)
WAIT	conv_og_sales_ABO_testing_FOUNDER_vs MushroomCoffee_OG_July 4 9x	$228,883	1331	$172	51%
WAIT	og_video_calm_mp_partner-SHA_MudvsMushroomCoffee-ShortenedRemix_	$103,621	610	$170	63%
SCALE	og_video_ingr_mo_partner-sha_what-is-the-difference-between-mudw	$41,365	288	$143	100%
KILL	conv_og_costperresult_ASC_scaling_FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee_OG_J	$33,459	159	$211	1%
KILL	conv_og_sales_ABO_testing_Expensive_OG_Kitchen_July 3 9x16 V1 -	$28,669	131	$220	0%
WAIT	og_WK-27-20260630_video_UGCARMY-AlecVagnozzi_july-4th-promo_tryb	$14,852	73	$203	8%
KILL	og_static_4x5_promo_broad_partner-UGCARMY-Riley_july-4th_4th-of-	$11,353	45	$254	0%
WAIT	og_video_calm_mp_partner-SHA_MudvsMushroomCoffee-ShortenedRemix_	$9,651	62	$156	81%
WAIT	og_video_promo_broad_no-partner_if-youve-been-thinking-about-try	$7,774	40	$193	26%
KILL	tof_ogmudwtr_reach_broad_Cory_JoeRogan_mud	$6,162	0	—	0%
WAIT	conv_og_sales_ABO_testing_Expensive_OG_Kitchen_July 3 9x16 V1 -	$5,733	31	$187	37%
KILL	tof_ogmudwtr_reach_SHA_MushroomCoffeeComparison_TT_version	$4,303	0	$21,513	0%
KILL	STATIQ-MUDWTR-1D-C4V2	$4,083	6	$639	0%
WAIT	og_WK-28-20260720_video-47s_promo_Broad_UGCARMY-AndrewShields_su	$4,047	25	$165	64%
KILL	og_WK-28-20260720_video-14s_promo_Broad_UGCARMY-Taharrabenham_su	$3,758	13	$282	4%
KILL	og_WK-27-20260715_video-34s_cog_broad_UGCARMY-KyrillosYoussef_mu	$3,587	13	$286	4%

Concept Fatigue — Spend-Weighted CAC by Concept

Concepts grouped from ad names (heuristic) · history accumulates weekly · a rising CAC trend on the dominant concept = fatigue warning

Concept	Weeks Tracked	Spend (wk)	% of Meta	CAC (wk)	CAC 4-wk Trend
conv og sales abo	2	$77,945	37.1%	$182	-4%
og video calm mp	2	$20,114	9.6%	$169	-15%
conv og costperresult asc	2	$15,036	7.2%	$249	+74%
what s the difference	2	$12,537	6%	$262	+14%
eav pmax	2	$10,472	5%	$100	+60%
807841218234 responsive search ad	2	$5,447	2.6%	$95	+42%
og wk 28 20260720	1	$5,398	2.6%	$221	—
og wk 28 2026	1	$4,754	2.3%	$374	—

Meta click CAC was $223 on 751 NCs and $168K spend; CPM $28.78 and CTR 0.63% (down from 0.79% WoW). One campaign (conv_mixed_scale_legacy+winners_lc_all_ABO_scale) carried 49% of Meta spend at $164 CAC, while the #2 (conv_pur_scale_winners CBO_Winners_Incremental) ran $236 CAC on 20% of spend. The 28d Scale & Kill view flags one SCALE candidate (og_video_ingr_mo mushroom-coffee comparison, $143 CAC, 100% confidence), 50 KILL candidates including the ASC scaling variant of the same founder concept at $211 CAC, and the "conv og costperresult asc" concept's 4-wk CAC trend is +74% while the dominant "conv og sales abo" concept holds ~$182.

Google Ads Deep Dive▶

Google Ads Deep Dive

13-week trends — Google Ads + Google Canada + YouTube Ads

SPEND / CAC / CPM / CTR · Northbeam (Clicks Only)

CPM

$25.78 this week

CTR

0.97% this week

CAC (Northbeam)

$106 this week

New Customers

589 this week

Campaign	Spend	Impressions	CTR	NCs	CAC	ROAS
Brand Search (og_search-brand)	$10,043	27,518	29.6%	239	$41	4.58x
Search Conquesting	$8,713	73,320	3.2%	71	$118	1.92x
eav PMax	$10,472	314,555	1.6%	111	$94	0.64x
NB Caffeine Sensitivity	$3,431	19,255	4.8%	21	$161	1.13x
NB Mushroom Coffee	$2,185	13,228	4.5%	12	$189	4.84x
OG PMax Retargeting	$1,659	12,702	5.0%	22	$75	13.29x
NB Coffee Alternative	$983	5,615	3.7%	8	$120	2.04x
Shop-Brand	$512	46,726	0.9%	20	$24	16.35x
eav Shopping	$4,146	126,003	0.4%	9	$465	0.13x
Total	$42,144	638,922	—	513	$82	2.75x

Google Ads total click CAC was $82 across $42K spend and 513 NCs; brand search (og_search-brand + Shop-Brand) contributed 259 NCs at $37 blended, while non-brand campaigns (NB Caffeine Sensitivity $161, NB Mushroom Coffee $189, eav Shopping $465) all ran above target. YouTube click CAC (broken out in the channel table) was $296 on $20K — per the playbook's 12-month lens, YouTube clicks read at 0.46× true influence, so survey-implied would land closer to ~$135–150. Note: applying the 2.7× Google over-credit prior, the survey-implied Google CAC would be substantially higher than $82, and brand-term revenue is a large share of the reported ROAS.

GA4 / Site Performance▶

GA4 / Site Performance

mudwtr.com

SESSIONS / CVR / LANDING PAGES / BRAND DEMAND · GA4 (property 310751693)

Sessions & CVR — Last 13 Weeks

Sessions CVR 2% Floor

Brand Demand — Last 13 Weeks (Direct + Organic Search)

Weekly sessions 13-week avg

Direct + organic search sessions (the brand-demand proxy) are visualized against the 13-week average in the chart above. Google Trends returned HTML this run, so the external search-interest comparison for MUD\WTR is unavailable this week.

Sessions

152,451

↑ 8.6% WoW

Engagement Rate

78.5%

↔ ~flat

Bounce Rate

21.6%

↑ 9.8pt WoW

Purchaser CVR

1.79%

↓ 0.11pt WoW

CVR — GA4 vs. Shopify-Side Sensors

GA4 = purchaser CVR · NC CVR = Shopify D2C new customers ÷ GA4 sessions · INTELLIGEMS = own Shopify-side tracking (orders ÷ sessions)

Sensor	Sessions	Conversions	CVR	WoW	What it measures
GA4 purchaser CVR	152,451	2,729	1.79%	↓ 0.11pt	Site purchases GA4 can see (~10% under)
NC CVR (Shopify truth)	152,451	1,445	0.95%	↓ 0.52pt	New customers per session — acquisition truth
Intelligems (Shopify-side)	—	—	—	—	Independent Shopify-side sensor; excludes renewals

Intelligems not pulled this run — intelligems-week.json covers 2026-07-20, not 2026-07-27 (stale, ignored).

Top Landing Pages — GA4 vs. Shopify-Side CVR

Landing Page	GA4 Sessions	GA4 CVR	IG Sessions	IG CVR	IG CVR WoW
/pages/rise-2	35,745	1.34%	—	—	—
/pages/compare-listicle-og	23,561	1.43%	—	—	—
/products/30-servings-tin	21,176	4.34%	—	—	—
/ (homepage)	20,092	2.12%	—	—	—

Intelligems not pulled this run — per-LP Shopify-side comparison unavailable.

Traffic Quality — Cold Paid LPs vs. Warm

PAID = rise-2 + listicle LPs (cold prospecting) · WARM = all other traffic · compare each bucket to its own prior week

Cold paid LP sessions

59.3K

39% of site • ↓ 2.7% WoW

Cold paid LP CVR

1.28%

Last week: 1.27%

Warm sessions

93.1K

↑ 17.3% WoW

Warm CVR

2.11%

Last week: 2.39%

Top Landing Pages

Landing Page	Sessions	CVR	Bounce Rate	Engagement	Status
/pages/rise-2	35,745	1.34%	18.7%	81.3%	Below 2% floor
/pages/compare-listicle-og	23,561	1.43%	15.0%	85.0%	Below 2% floor
/products/30-servings-tin	21,176	4.34%	17.8%	82.2%	Highest CVR on volume
/ (homepage)	20,092	2.12%	19.7%	80.3%	Above floor
/collections/shop	5,850	3.43%	11.0%	89.0%	Strong CVR
/products/coffee-starter-kit	3,307	2.04%	17.5%	82.5%	Above floor
/products/rest-starter-kit	2,815	0.50%	27.5%	72.5%	Weak conversion

Warm sessions grew 17.3% WoW (79K → 93K) while warm CVR slipped from 2.39% to 2.11%; cold paid LPs were roughly flat (60K → 59K sessions at ~1.28% CVR both weeks). The two big cold prospecting LPs (/pages/rise-2 at 1.34% on 35.7K sessions; /pages/compare-listicle-og at 1.43% on 23.6K) sit below the 2% floor as expected for cold traffic. The warm PDP /products/30-servings-tin ran 4.34% on 21K sessions and remains the highest-CVR landing surface at material volume.

Subscription Health▶

Subscription Health

Active subscribers and net change (Recharge billing-cycle aligned)

ACTIVE SUBS / NET CHANGE · Omni (Total Subscribers / Net Subscribers)

Active Subscribers — Last 13 Weeks

Total Active Net Change / Week

Active Subscribers

108,702

↓ 1,285 WoW

Net Change This Week

-1,531

Last week: -1,517

New Subs This Week

1,912

From Omni

13-wk Trend

↓ 9.5%

120K → 109K

Active subs ended the week at 108,702, down 1,285 WoW; net change was -1,531 (vs. -1,517 prior week). The 13-week trend shows a ~9.5% decline from ~120K to ~109K, and daily net-sub prints were negative every day of the week (worst Jul 28 at -402, best Aug 2 at -106). Note: negative early-week / less-negative late-week is the typical Recharge billing-cycle pattern flagged in the playbook, but the 13-week trajectory is meaningfully worse than a single-week cycle read.

Email & SMS▶

Email & SMS

Campaign + flow performance

CAMPAIGNS / OPENS / CLICKS / REVENUE · Klaviyo API (conversion metric PaY7ks)

Campaigns Sent

Jul 27 – Aug 2

Total Recipients

1.60M

Sum across sends

Total Campaign Revenue

$169.8K

~22% of total revenue

Avg Open Rate

55.3%

Strong deliverability

Send Date	Campaign	Recipients	Open Rate	Click Rate	Revenue
Aug 1	[DUH] 8.01.26 - PSL Tease	386,943	54.3%	0.58%	$29,284
Jul 31	[DUH] 7.31.26 - $25 OFF Push Resend	310,549	55.3%	0.24%	$1,676
Jul 30	[DUH] 7.30.26 - $25 OFF Push	310,922	56.3%	0.25%	$2,335
Jul 29	[DUH] 7.29.26 - PSL Whisper RE-SEND	388,465	56.3%	0.66%	$57,956
Jul 28	[DUH] 7.28.26 TWB Newsletter	212,542	51.8%	0.58%	$36,509
Jul 27	[DUH] 7.27.26 - PSL Whisper	390,384	57.7%	0.65%	$42,002

6 campaigns drove $169.8K (~22% of total revenue) at 55.3% average open rate. The three PSL "whisper" sends carried the week: Jul 29 resend $58.0K, Jul 27 initial $42.0K, and Jul 28 TWB newsletter $36.5K — combined 80% of campaign revenue. The two $25 OFF push sends (Jul 30/31) drew similar open rates (~56%) but click rates of 0.24–0.25% and revenue of only $1.7K–$2.3K each, well below the 0.3% click-rate floor flagged in the playbook for revenue-driving sends.

Instagram Organic▶

Instagram Organic

@drinkmudwtr

FOLLOWERS / POSTS / REACH · Meta Graph API (IG business account 17841407401053372)

Followers

384,018

Lifetime posts: 1,834

Posts This Week

Reels + feed

Total Reach

7,531

2.0% of follower base

Total Engagement

218

Interactions across posts

Posts This Week

Date	Type	Caption	Reach	Views	Likes	Comments	Shares	Saves	Link
Jul 30	Reel	Gather Talks Ep 17 with @maxmeisel86	2,055	2,703	61	7	0	2	View →
Jul 29	Image	Say goodbye to that 3pm crash.	1,169	1,993	17	0	1	2	View →
Jul 28	Reel	It's always a good time for a reminder.	1,915	2,916	56	4	7	4	View →
Jul 27	Image	This lump of birch fungus scores a 146,700 on the antioxidant charts. Your green juice is not beating that.	2,392	3,949	39	4	3	6	View →

4 posts (2 reels, 2 images) reached 7,531 accounts total — roughly 2% of the 384K follower base — with 218 combined interactions. Highest-reach post was the Jul 27 birch fungus antioxidant image (2,392 reach, 3,949 views, 6 saves); the Jul 30 "Gather Talks Ep 17" reel led on likes at 61. Reach per post averaged under 2K, well below the follower count.

Industry News▶

Industry News

Web search · Last 7 days · MUD\WTR + Ryze + Four Sigmatic + Everyday Dose + Space Goods

SEARCH INTEREST · google-trends-api (US, past 90d) — unavailable this run NEWS · Google News RSS REDDIT · Reddit JSON (search across /r/biohackers /r/nootropics /r/coffee /r/tea)

MUD\WTR Brand Interest — Last 13 Weeks (Google Trends)

Google Trends API returned HTML this run — chart unavailable

Competitive Search Interest — Last 13 Weeks (Google Trends, US)

Google Trends API returned HTML this run — chart unavailable

Google News surfaced 8 competitor/category articles and zero MUD\WTR earned-media hits this week; Reddit was silent across all four tracked brands. Ryze had 3 placements (2 same-day on as.com Aug 3, plus a Bayern FC ED-angle piece) and Everyday Dose 1, all on the "mushroom coffee for weight loss" angle — a category-content push visible from competitors this week. USA Today ran a "coffee jitters" piece aligned with MUD\WTR's positioning but did not mention the brand.

FC Bayern · Ryze

Does Ryze Mushroom Coffee Help With Erectile Dysfunction?

Ryze SEO-driven listicle placement, dated Aug 2. Signals aggressive top-of-funnel content play on wellness-adjacent queries.

as.com · Ryze

Ryze Weight Loss: The Mushroom Coffee That May Help Support Sustainable Weight Management

Ryze weight-management angle content, syndicated Aug 3. Building the "mushroom coffee for weight loss" search corpus.

as.com · Ryze

Ryze Coffee Reviews Weight Loss: Honest Insights from Real Users and Trials

Second Ryze weight-loss review placement on Aug 3. Two same-day Ryze articles on as.com suggests coordinated PR push.

FC Bayern · Everyday Dose

What Is the Best Mushroom Coffee for Weight Loss

Everyday Dose featured in weight-loss comparison listicle, Aug 3. Category is consolidating around the weight-loss messaging angle.

USA Today · Category

Feeling jittery from coffee? When experts say you might be overdoing it

Major mainstream press placement on the "coffee anxiety" thesis MUD\WTR positions against — but MUD\WTR itself not mentioned in the article.

Google News · MUD\WTR

No MUD\WTR earned-media hits this week

Zero Google News results for MUD\WTR in the Jul 27 – Aug 2 window. Competitors (Ryze x3, Everyday Dose x1) all placed content on weight-loss angle. Reddit also silent across all four tracked brands.