Week of July 13 – July 19, 2026

Generated Monday, July 20, 2026 at 9:31am PT · Data pulled Monday, July 20, 2026 at 9:31am PT

Northbeam Omni GA4 Meta Klaviyo Daily Stand Gorgias Instagram Google Trends News Apify

⚠ Called to your attention — auto-review

🔴 Kill the July-4th promo creatives still spending — $64K/28d at $250–$386 CAC. Seven promo-tagged assets in the 28-day scale/kill view (og_static_4x5_july-4th, og_static_9x16_july-4th, og_video_calm_broad_OG-RECIPE, og_WK-27 UGCARMY variants) are burning against a promo that ended. Cut them today; move the freed budget into the two SCALE-flagged FOUNDER-vs-MushroomCoffee assets ($153 and $128 CAC, 99% and 96% P(beats target)).
🔴 The week opened at $154 D2C CAC and never rejoined the prior-week band. Mon–Wed averaged $143 vs. the prior week's front half at $93; Thu–Sun recovered to $111 but the whole week ran $123 D2C CAC vs. $90 target and $88 blended-incl-Amazon vs. $75 target. If Mon/Tue Jul 20–21 print above $120 D2C with no promo to blame, that's the new baseline and Meta needs a structural response, not a creative rotation.
🟡 One campaign carries 58% of Meta — conv_all_ABO_sandbox at $96.5K/544 NCs. Above the 40% fragility line, and it's running at $173 survey-implied CAC (aligned with click). The workhorse is fine; the missing #2 is the risk. Name a second campaign to build to 20%+ share within four weeks or accept the concentration.
🟡 Lift the two SCALE-flagged Meta ads 20% and watch CPM. og_video_ingr_mo (what-is-the-difference) at $57.6K/28d, $153 CAC, 99% P(beats target); conv_og_costperresult ASC scaling FOUNDER at $4.4K/28d, $128 CAC, 96%. Both meet playbook scale conditions. +20% budget each, kill the lift if CPM rises >15% WoW.
⚪ YouTube is a hold, not a kill — clicks show $358 but survey-implied is $109. 9% survey share (+1.4pt WoW), consistent with the 12-month 0.46× click-credit prior. Do not cut on click CAC. If a real budget decision hangs on it, run a geo holdout on the $20.9K/wk before touching the line.
⚪ Google non-brand looks efficient at $57 blended click CAC but survey says $186. Brand Search + Shop-Brand ($10.2K at $24–$37) is harvesting demand; non-brand campaigns (Search Conquesting $77, NB Coffee $118, NB Mushroom $116, NB Coffee Alt $182) are the real acquisition cost and all above target. Decision for Shane: hold non-brand Google as hygiene spend, or pull the $10.1K/wk in NB campaigns and see if Meta+organic backfill. The three-lens gap here is a strategy call, not a media-buyer tweak.

Instagram post-level data unavailable (Supermetrics IGI auth expired); Google Trends fetch failed — brand-interest charts unavailable this run. GA4 begin_checkout has been degraded since ~May 18, so the checkout stage in the funnel is directional.

✅ Going well

Exit trajectory improved: Thu–Sun averaged $111 D2C CAC vs. Mon–Wed at $143 — the week ended trending toward target even though the average missed.
Two Meta creatives cleared the scale bar cleanly: og_video_ingr_mo at $153 CAC / 99% P(beats target) and conv_og_costperresult ASC scaling FOUNDER at $128 / 96%.
Cohort retention is the strongest lever on the board — Jan 2026 cohort at 67.1% / 51.5% / 39.4% M1/M2/M3, well above the 61/45/36 targets, and every cohort since Oct 2025 is above target.
CPM dropped to $31.81 (-13.1% WoW), so the CAC pressure this week is a conversion/creative problem, not a media-cost problem.

❌ Going poorly

New customers fell to 307/day from 367 (-16.3%) with all three CAC lenses breaching target: legacy blended $127 vs. $85, tracker D2C $123 vs. $90, blended-incl-Amazon $88 vs. $75.
Meta CTR collapsed to 0.73% (-23% WoW) even as CPM eased — the creative deck is fatiguing faster than costs are falling.
Klaviyo revenue is 91% concentrated in one send: the Jul 14 TWB Newsletter at $65.9K of $72.6K total. The other three broadcasts hit 59–63% opens but 0.29–0.35% click rates — below the 0.3% floor for revenue sends.
ATCs fell -21.5% vs. sessions -12.1%, so intent is softening upstream of the PDP, not just volume.

💬 Worth discussing

YouTube two-lens gap is 3.3× and the click number ($358) will keep tempting a cut. A $10K/wk geo holdout for 4 weeks would settle whether the $109 survey-implied number is real incrementality or memory. Worth the spend to lock the answer, or keep holding without proof?
Google non-brand ($10.1K/wk across Coffee, Mushroom Coffee, Coffee Alt at $116–$182 CAC) — hygiene spend that captures competitive intent, or dead weight the survey (8.6% share) says isn't creating customers? A 2-week pause on the three NB campaigns would show whether brand-search NCs and Meta backfill.
conv_all_ABO_sandbox at 58% of Meta spend performs well but is a single point of failure. Do we deliberately starve it 10–15% to force a #2 to emerge, or ride the workhorse and accept the fragility?

❓ Not sure yet

Whether the week's CAC blow-out is Meta creative fatigue or a broader traffic-quality shift — cold LP CVR fell to 1.20% from 1.30% and warm fell to 2.31% from 2.46%, both directions the same. Another week of daily data resolves whether last week was the noise or this week is.
Fairing shifts inside noise: Meta -3.8pt, WoM +1.8pt, Podcast +1.8pt (from 1.3% to 3%), "Someone I follow" +1.6pt. At ~886 responses these are ±3pt swings — need the 4-week rolling view before calling any of them a trend.
Instagram organic contribution — Fairing "Someone I follow on social" at 3.7% (+1.6pt) suggests creator/organic influence is moving, but IGI post data is missing this run. Fix the Supermetrics auth to read whether specific posts drove the shift.

Scorecard

13-week trends — solid line is 2026, dashed is 2025 YoY

SPEND · Daily Spend Tracker NEW CUSTOMERS · Daily Spend Tracker (Shopify truth) REVENUE · Omni (Total Revenue) CAC = SPEND ÷ NEW CUSTOMERS D2C + AMAZON CAC LENSES · Tracker monthly tabs (targets <$90 / <$75) CPM/CTR · Northbeam

Volume & Efficiency — Last 12 Weeks

NCs/Day Blended CAC Target

Daily D2C CAC — Last 14 Days (exit trajectory)

Daily D2C CAC $90 Target

$748K

Revenue

↓ 4.9% WoW

Last week: $787K

$273K

Ad Spend

↓ 0.8% WoW

Last week: $276K

2.74x

MER

↓ 3.9% WoW

Last week: 2.85x • Target: 3.0x

$127

Blended CAC

↑ 18.7% WoW

Last week: $107 • Target: <$85

$123

D2C CAC (tracker)

↑ 17.1% WoW

Last week: $105 • Target: <$90

$88

Blended CAC incl. Amazon

↑ 11.2% WoW

Last week: $79 • Target: <$75

307/day

New Customers

↓ 16.3% WoW

Last week: 367/day • Target: 600

—

iAOV

n/a

Not pulled this run

2.35%

Site CVR (GA4)

↓ 0.11pt WoW

Last week: 2.46% • Target: >2.0%

$31.81

CPM

↓ 13.1% WoW

Last week: $36.61

0.82%

CTR

↓ 23.4% WoW

Last week: 1.07%

CAC — Two Lenses (click vs. survey-implied)

CLICK CAC · Northbeam clicks-only SURVEY CAC · spend ÷ (Fairing share × tracker D2C NCs) · small channels noisy weekly — see the attribution deep dive for the 12-mo view

CAC by channel — Northbeam clicks vs Fairing survey-implied

■ Northbeam (clicks) ■ Fairing (survey-implied)

Channel	Spend	Click NCs	Click CAC	Survey Share	Survey NCs	Survey CAC	Read
Meta	$165,428	760	$218	44.5% ±3.3	956	$173	lenses aligned
Search	$34,427	569	$61	8.6% ±1.8	185	$186	clicks over-credit 3.0× — likely OVER-spending
YouTube	$20,943	59	$358	9% ±1.9	193	$109	clicks under-credit 3.3× — likely UNDER-spending
AppLovin (games)	$3,642	10	$383	0.2% ±0.3	4	$911	clicks over-credit 2.4× — likely OVER-spending
TikTok	$1,671	0	—	3% ±1.1	64	$26	click-invisible — only the survey sees it

Revenue landed at $748K (-4.9% WoW) on $273K spend (-0.8%), with new customers dropping to 307/day from 367 (-16.3%). All three CAC lenses moved the wrong direction: legacy blended (pulse scorecard) $127 vs. $85 target (+18.7% WoW), tracker D2C CAC $123 vs. $90 target (+17.1%), and blended incl. Amazon $88 vs. $75 target (+11.2%). The daily D2C strip shows Mon Jul 13 opened at $154 CAC and never recovered to the prior-week band ($82–$117) — the exit half of the week (Thu–Sun) averaged $111 vs. the front half at $143, so the trajectory is improving but the whole week ran above target.

D2C Funnel

Full-funnel view

IMPRESSIONS / CTR · Northbeam SESSIONS / ATC / CHECKOUT · GA4 (begin_checkout degraded since ~May 18 — directional) CVR TRUTH · Shopify orders (Omni) ÷ GA4 sessions NEW CUSTOMERS · Daily Spend Tracker

Bar width is log-scaled (real drop-offs are far steeper than any drawing can show) — read the numbers, not the shape. Between stages: the named conversion rate (CTR, ATC rate, etc.), the raw drop-off, and how that rate moved vs. last week. The red band marks this week’s biggest week-over-week deterioration. Sensor lines mark where measurement changes systems. Lanes at the bottom split site traffic by intent (cold paid landing pages vs. everything else).

Sessions fell to 149K (-12.1% WoW), ATCs to 7,917 (-21.5%), and purchases to 2,710 (-16.9%). GA4 purchaser CVR held at 2.24% (-0.12pt) but NC CVR — Shopify D2C new customers over GA4 sessions — fell to 1.44% from 1.52%, so acquisition efficiency softened faster than the top-line CVR suggests. ATC drop (-21.5%) outpaced session drop (-12.1%), which points to intent-of-traffic softening upstream of the PDP rather than pure volume loss.

Channel Mix▶

Channel Mix

Channel-level performance

CHANNEL SPEND / CAC / NCs · Northbeam (Clicks Only, Cash) BLENDED TOTAL · Daily Spend Tracker

Channel Spend Mix — Last 6 Weeks

Channel	Spend	% Mix	NCs	CAC	ROAS
Facebook Ads	$165,428	60%	760	$218	0.63x
Google Ads	$30,794	11%	539	$57	2.90x
YouTube Ads	$20,943	8%	59	$358	0.43x
Amazon	$9,048	3%	—	—	8.72x
Impact (affiliate)	$7,886	3%	120	$66	0.84x
AppLovin (games)	$3,642	1%	10	$383	0.33x
Google Ads — Canada	$521	0%	4	$130	10.02x
TikTok	$1,671	1%	0	—	0.00x
Other (podcast, Bing, list growth, agency)	$33,552	12%	657	$51	varies
Total (D2C tracker)	$273,485	100%	2,149	$127.26	2.74x

Meta carried 60% of spend at $165K with click CAC of $218 — survey-implied CAC on Meta was $173 (44.5% survey share × 2,149 D2C NCs), so both lenses are aligned and both above target. YouTube click CAC was $358 vs. survey-implied ~$109 (9% survey share, +1.4pt WoW), consistent with its 12-month pattern of clicks capturing under half its role. Google Ads showed the largest lens divergence: click CAC $57 (near-target) but survey-implied $186 — only 8.6% of new customers named search as what led them, so the $57 click number sits mostly on brand-term harvesting rather than incremental acquisition.

Post-Purchase Attribution▶

Post-Purchase Attribution

"What led you to purchase today?" — new customers, self-reported (Fairing)

SURVEY · Fairing (question 2864, first orders only) Survey = claimed influence; Northbeam = last click. Divergence is signal, not error — view-heavy channels (YouTube, podcast) and word-of-mouth show up here first.

Click-Invisible Channels — Survey Share, Last 13 Weeks

Meta (~42–52%) omitted for scale — see table

Answer	Responses	Share	Prior Wk	Shift
Facebook or Instagram Ad	394	44.5%	48.3%	-3.8pt
Friend, Family or Colleague	105	11.9%	10%	+1.8pt
YouTube	80	9%	7.7%	+1.4pt
Other	80	9%	11.8%	-2.8pt
Online Search (i.e. Google)	76	8.6%	7.2%	+1.4pt
Someone I Follow On Social Media	33	3.7%	2.1%	+1.6pt
Podcast	27	3%	1.3%	+1.8pt
TikTok	27	3%	2.9%	+0.2pt
Healthcare Professional	17	1.9%	1.4%	+0.5pt
An Article	9	1%	2.1%	-1.1pt
Target	6	0.7%	0.9%	-0.2pt
Grocery Store	5	0.6%	0.3%	+0.3pt

Meta survey share slipped to 44.5% (-3.8pt WoW) on 394 of 886 responses, while word-of-mouth ticked up to 11.9% (+1.8pt) — both moves are inside typical weekly noise (~±3pt) at this sample size. YouTube share rose to 9% (+1.4pt) and Podcast doubled to 3% (+1.8pt from 1.3%), continuing a modest lift in view-heavy channels. "Someone I follow on social" (3.7%, +1.6pt) is the largest proportional mover among small answers — worth watching next week to see if it holds.

Meta Deep Dive▶

Meta Deep Dive

13-week trends — Facebook Ads + Facebook Ads Canada

SPEND / CAC / CPM / CTR / THUMBSTOP · Northbeam (Clicks Only) CREATIVE PREVIEWS · Meta Graph API (account 548943215677106)

CPM

$30.80 this week

CTR

0.73% this week

CAC (Northbeam)

$218 this week

New Customers

760 this week

Top 5 Campaigns by Spend

Campaign	Spend	% of Meta	NCs	CAC	ROAS
conv_all_ABO_sandbox	$96,528	58%	544	$173	0.78x
conv-Pur_all_ABO+_Promos_7DC+1DET	$13,139	8%	35	$373	0.13x
conv-Pur_all_CBO_Partnerships+Trybe-UGCArmy_Testing	$8,399	5%	16	$514	0.09x
conv-pur_CBO_MixedAudiences_7DC+1DET_NC	$6,769	4%	31	$217	0.22x
conv_og_sales_general_ASC_scaling_7day	$6,162	4%	21	$291	1.81x

Scale & Kill — Meta Ads, Trailing 28 Days

Statistical: SCALE / KILL only when confident vs target CAC · one week is never enough data — WAIT is honest · interactive scatter: Creative Analytics

SCALE 3 WAIT 139 KILL 48target $172 · 95% confidence · 28d window · 30 zero-NC ads off the chart

Each ad — 28-day spend (log) vs new-customer CAC

● scale ● wait ● kill

Status	Ad	Spend 28d	NCs 28d	CAC 28d	P(beats target)
WAIT	conv_og_sales_ABO_testing_FOUNDER_vs MushroomCoffee_OG_July 4 9x	$223,896	1341	$167	86%
WAIT	og_video_calm_mp_partner-SHA_MudvsMushroomCoffee-ShortenedRemix_	$117,026	679	$172	49%
SCALE	og_video_ingr_mo_partner-sha_what-is-the-difference-between-mudw	$57,612	376	$153	99%
KILL	og_static_4x5_promo_broad_partner-UGCARMY-Riley_july-4th_4th-of-	$19,279	69	$281	0%
WAIT	og_WK-27-20260630_video_UGCARMY-AlecVagnozzi_july-4th-promo_tryb	$17,309	87	$199	10%
WAIT	og_video_promo_broad_no-partner_if-youve-been-thinking-about-try	$15,635	77	$204	7%
WAIT	og_video_ingr_mo_partner-sha_what-is-the-difference-between-mudw	$10,260	63	$162	71%
WAIT	og_video_calm_mp_partner-SHA_MudvsMushroomCoffee-ShortenedRemix_	$9,932	68	$146	92%
KILL	og_video_calm_mp_partner-SHA_MudvsMushroomCoffee-ShortenedRemix_	$7,184	30	$241	3%
WAIT	conv_og_sales_ABO_testing_Expensive_OG_Kitchen_July 3 9x16 V1 -	$6,861	34	$201	21%
KILL	og_static_9x16_promo_broad_july-4th_the-revolution-starts-tomorr	$5,993	16	$386	0%
KILL	og_video_calm_broad_OG-RECIPE_v1	$5,278	18	$292	1%
KILL	og_WK-27-20260630_video_UGCARMY-CharlieBanham_july-4th-promo_try	$5,271	16	$333	0%
KILL	og_WK-25-2026_video-_econ_broad_partner-SHA_why-mud-is-expensive	$5,141	17	$303	1%
WAIT	og_wk-26-2026_AI-video-50_promo_broad_UGC-ARMY-Bashar_july-4th-p	$4,691	25	$188	37%
SCALE	conv_og_costperresult_ASC_scaling_FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee_OG_J	$4,404	34	$128	96%

Concept Fatigue — Spend-Weighted CAC by Concept

Concepts grouped from ad names (heuristic) · history accumulates weekly · a rising CAC trend on the dominant concept = fatigue warning

Concept	Weeks Tracked	Spend (wk)	% of Meta	CAC (wk)	CAC 4-wk Trend
conv og sales abo	1	$60,559	29.3%	$189	—
og video calm mp	1	$34,703	16.8%	$198	—
og video ingr mo	1	$17,044	8.3%	$161	—
what s the difference	1	$10,238	5%	$230	—
amazon united states	1	$9,048	4.4%	—	—
og wk 27 20260711	1	$6,016	2.9%	$446	—
807841218234 responsive search ad	1	$5,860	2.8%	$67	—
og wk 27 20260630	1	$5,247	2.5%	$370	—

Meta spent $165K for 760 NCs at $218 click CAC (survey-implied $173), with CPM easing to $30.80 (-13.1%) but CTR sliding to 0.73% (-23%). The conv_all_ABO_sandbox campaign carried 58% of Meta spend ($96.5K, 544 NCs at $173) — concentration is above the 40% fragility threshold in the playbook. July-4th promo-tagged creatives are still spending post-promo: seven of the KILL-flagged ads in the 28-day view are july-4th assets ($64K combined spend at $250–$386 CAC), while the FOUNDER vs MushroomCoffee listicle at $224K/28d and 86% P(beats target) is the workhorse.

Google Ads Deep Dive▶

Google Ads Deep Dive

13-week trends — Google Ads + Google Canada + YouTube Ads

SPEND / CAC / CPM / CTR · Northbeam (Clicks Only)

CPM

$37.34 this week

CTR

1.29% this week

CAC (Northbeam)

$57 this week

New Customers

539 this week

Campaign	Spend	Impressions	CTR	NCs	CAC	ROAS
Brand Search	$9,195	27,136	27.0%	249	$37	4.65x
Shop-Brand	$1,010	62,106	1.10%	43	$24	8.22x
Search Conquesting	$7,113	82,330	2.82%	93	$77	2.28x
PMax Retargeting	$3,341	30,241	3.68%	38	$86	6.84x
eav_pmax	$3,119	76,080	1.75%	52	$59	1.06x
eav-shopping	$3,097	113,669	0.67%	31	$98	0.54x
NB Coffee — Caffeine Sensitivity	$3,483	15,522	6.47%	30	$118	0.92x
NB Mushroom Coffee	$2,452	15,152	4.49%	21	$116	4.02x
NB Coffee Alternative	$1,096	6,923	3.68%	6	$182	2.24x
YouTube Relaunch #2	$20,943	1,040,189	0.29%	59	$358	0.43x
Total (Google + YouTube US)	$54,849	1,469,348	—	622	$88	2.16x

Google Ads click CAC came in at $57 on 539 NCs, but ~$10.2K of that spend sits in Brand Search + Shop-Brand ($37 and $24 click CAC) — brand-term harvesting per the playbook. Non-brand campaigns (Search Conquesting $77, NB Coffee $118, NB Mushroom $116, NB Coffee Alternative $182) are all above the $85 blended target. YouTube spent $20.9K for 59 click-attributed NCs at $358, but survey-implied YouTube CAC was ~$109 (9% share × 2,149 D2C NCs) — the two lenses diverge by ~3.3× consistent with the 12-month pattern of clicks capturing under half of YouTube's role.

GA4 / Site Performance▶

GA4 / Site Performance

mudwtr.com

SESSIONS / CVR / LANDING PAGES / BRAND DEMAND · GA4 (property 310751693)

Sessions & CVR — Last 13 Weeks

Sessions CVR 2% Floor

Brand Demand — Last 13 Weeks (Direct + Organic Search)

Weekly sessions 13-week avg

Direct + organic search sessions represent warm-brand demand landing on site — overall session volume this week was 149K vs. 170K prior (-12.1%). Fairing shows word-of-mouth at 11.9% (+1.8pt) and organic search at 8.6% (+1.4pt) of new-customer attribution, both trending up. See the sessions/CVR chart above for the 13-week trajectory.

Sessions

149,068

↓ 12.1% WoW

Engagement Rate

78.0%

↓ 8.5pt WoW

Bounce Rate

22.0%

↑ 8.9pt WoW

Purchaser CVR

2.24%

↓ 0.12pt WoW

CVR — GA4 vs. Shopify-Side Sensors

GA4 = purchaser CVR · NC CVR = Shopify D2C new customers ÷ GA4 sessions · INTELLIGEMS = own Shopify-side tracking (orders ÷ sessions)

Sensor	Sessions	Conversions	CVR	WoW	What it measures
GA4 purchaser CVR	149,068	2,710	2.24%	↓ 0.12pt	Site purchases GA4 can see (~10% under)
NC CVR (Shopify truth)	149,068	2,149	1.44%	↓ 0.08pt	New customers per session — acquisition truth
Intelligems (Shopify-side)	108,323	2,356	2.38%	↑ 1.6%	Independent Shopify-side sensor; excludes renewals

Top Landing Pages — GA4 vs. Shopify-Side CVR

Landing Page	GA4 Sessions	GA4 CVR	IG Sessions	IG CVR	IG CVR WoW
/pages/rise-2	43,063	1.17%	37,497	1.47%	↓ 10.5%
/pages/compare-listicle-og	22,962	1.45%	17,886	1.89%	↑ 9.8%
/products/30-servings-tin	20,967	4.14%	15,209	5.00%	↓ 10.5%
/ (homepage)	19,851	2.17%	15,384	2.68%	↓ 13.6%
/collections/shop	4,924	3.89%	2,879	6.01%	↑ 1.3%
/products/coffee-starter-kit	2,827	3.52%	2,045	5.37%	↑ 6.1%

Traffic Quality — Cold Paid LPs vs. Warm

PAID = rise-2 + listicle LPs (cold prospecting) · WARM = all other traffic · compare each bucket to its own prior week

Cold paid LP sessions

66.0K

44% of site • ↓ 15.7% WoW

Cold paid LP CVR

1.20%

Last week: 1.30%

Warm sessions

83.0K

↓ 9.0% WoW

Warm CVR

2.31%

Last week: 2.46%

Top Landing Pages

Landing Page	Sessions	CVR	Bounce Rate	Engagement	Status
/pages/rise-2	43,063	1.17%	21.7%	78.3%	Highest traffic, below floor
/pages/compare-listicle-og	22,962	1.45%	18.3%	81.7%	Below 2% floor
/products/30-servings-tin	20,967	4.14%	16.5%	83.5%	Strong CVR
/ (homepage)	19,851	2.17%	24.7%	75.3%	Above floor
/collections/shop	4,924	3.89%	14.1%	85.9%	Strong CVR
/products/coffee-starter-kit	2,827	3.52%	18.1%	81.9%	Strong CVR

Cold paid LP CVR fell to 1.20% from 1.30% on 66K sessions (-15.7%); warm CVR fell to 2.31% from 2.46% on 83K sessions (-9%). /pages/rise-2 (43K sessions, GA4 CVR 1.17%, Intelligems CVR 1.47% down 10.5% WoW) and /pages/compare-listicle-og (23K sessions, GA4 CVR 1.45%, Intelligems +9.8% WoW) sit in the cold-prospecting bucket — different intent from PDPs at 3.5–5% CVR per playbook guidance. Intelligems' sitewide decomposition shows +5.9pt of the +1.6% overall CVR change came from mix shift (warmer traffic as cold sessions fell); like-for-like CVR was ~-4.3%.

Subscription Health▶

Subscription Health

Active subscribers and net change (Recharge billing-cycle aligned)

ACTIVE SUBS / NET CHANGE · Omni (Total Subscribers / Net Subscribers)

Active Subscribers — Last 13 Weeks

Total Active Net Change / Week

Subscriber Retention by Cohort

Cohort	Month 1	Month 2	Month 3	Month 4	Month 5	Month 6
	Target: 61%	Target: 45%	Target: 36%	Target: 30%	Target: 25%	Target: 21%
Apr 2025	58.2%	42.1%	33.5%	28.4%	24.1%	20.8%
May 2025	59.4%	43.0%	34.2%	29.0%	24.7%	21.3%
Jun 2025	57.8%	41.5%	33.1%	28.0%	23.8%	20.5%
Jul 2025	60.5%	44.8%	35.2%	29.6%	25.0%	21.7%
Aug 2025	59.8%	43.5%	34.9%	29.3%	24.9%	21.4%
Sep 2025	60.1%	44.2%	35.8%	30.1%	25.4%	22.1%
Oct 2025	62.3%	46.6%	36.7%	31.3%	26.8%	—
Nov 2025	62.8%	46.3%	38.0%	31.8%	26.2%	—
Dec 2025	61.4%	47.9%	38.8%	31.5%	—	—
Jan 2026	67.1%	51.5%	39.4%	—	—	—
Feb 2026	63.7%	48.2%	—	—	—	—
Mar 2026	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—

Active subscribers ended the week at 109,849, down from 111,129 on Jul 13 (net -1,280 across 7 days). Daily net subs ran negative every day (-22 to -346), consistent with the Recharge billing-cycle pattern the playbook flags around late-month; net numbers should be judged against the 4-week trend rather than week-in-isolation. Cohort retention remains healthy: recent cohorts (Oct 2025 onward) sit above the 61%/45%/36% M1/M2/M3 targets, and the Jan 2026 cohort at 67.1%/51.5%/39.4% is the strongest on the board.

Email & SMS▶

Email & SMS

Campaign + flow performance

CAMPAIGNS / OPENS / CLICKS / REVENUE · Klaviyo API (conversion metric PaY7ks)

Email List Growth — Last 12 Weeks

Total Subscribers Net New / Week

Recipients (avg)

214K

Across 4 campaigns

Campaigns Sent

This week

Total Campaign Revenue

$72.6K

Klaviyo attributed

Send Date	Campaign	Recipients	Open Rate	Click Rate	Revenue
Jul 13	OG & Coffee Push	“OG & Coffee Push”	234,518	62.6%	0.30%	$2,076
Jul 14	TWB Newsletter	“Trends With Benefits”	153,867	40.1%	0.91%	$65,941
Jul 17	Fix Your Fix	“Fix Your Fix — Full Transparency”	234,125	61.2%	0.35%	$2,767
Jul 18	When the Rhythm Feels Off	“When the Rhythm Feels Off”	233,454	59.7%	0.29%	$1,795

Four campaigns generated $72.6K in Klaviyo-attributed revenue, with the Jul 14 TWB Newsletter contributing $65.9K (91% of the weekly email number) at 40.1% open / 0.91% click on 153.9K recipients. The three broadcasts (OG & Coffee Push, Fix Your Fix, When the Rhythm Feels Off) each hit 59–63% open rates but click rates of 0.29–0.35% — below the playbook's 0.3% floor for revenue-driving sends, and combined revenue of $6.6K reflects that. Concentration in a single send (TWB) is >70%, matching the playbook's fragility flag.

Instagram Organic▶

Instagram Organic

@mudwtr

FOLLOWERS / POSTS / REACH · Meta Graph API (IG business account 17841407401053372)

Follower Growth — Last 12 Weeks

Total Followers Net New / Week

Followers

383,653

Total media: 1,823

Posts This Week

—

Post data unavailable

Posts This Week

Instagram post data unavailable this run — Supermetrics IGI connector auth expired (no schedule_id). Follower/media counts still pulled via Graph API.

Followers stand at 383,653 across 1,823 total media items. Post-level engagement data is unavailable this week because the Supermetrics IGI connector auth expired — only aggregate account totals came through Graph API. Fairing shows "Someone I follow on social" at 3.7% of new-customer attribution (+1.6pt WoW), so directional creator/organic influence trended up even without IG post detail.

Industry News▶

Industry News

Web search · Last 30 days · MUD\WTR + Ryze + Four Sigmatic + Everyday Dose + Space Goods

SEARCH INTEREST · google-trends-api (US, past 90d) — unavailable this run NEWS · Google News RSS REDDIT · Reddit JSON (search across /r/biohackers /r/nootropics /r/coffee /r/tea)

MUD\WTR Brand Interest — Last 13 Weeks (Google Trends)

Google Trends fetch failed this run — chart unavailable

Competitive Search Interest — Last 13 Weeks (Google Trends, US)

Google Trends fetch failed this run — chart unavailable

15 news items surfaced this week (0 Reddit) with mainstream coverage tilting favorable-to-category: WIRED, Good Housekeeping, and Taste of Home all ran mushroom-coffee roundups that included MUD\WTR alongside Ryze, Four Sigmatic, and Everyday Dose. Competitor product news: Four Sigmatic launched a Mushroom Protein Coffee (category extension), and Everyday Dose received a starter-kit review focused on the $29 → month-two subscription friction. The Tennessean piece on coffee jitters and caffeine sensitivity aligns with the messaging angle several of the top Meta creatives lean on.

WIRED · Category

‘I Laughed, I Cried, I Got the Runs’: The Best Mushroom Coffees for an Alternative Buzz

Major WIRED roundup featuring MUD\WTR alongside Ryze, Four Sigmatic and Everyday Dose. Mainstream tech media coverage — strong category tailwind.

Taste of Home · Category

The Best Mushroom Coffee for Focus and Wellness, Tested by a Dietitian

Dietitian-tested roundup featuring MUD\WTR, Ryze, Four Sigmatic and Everyday Dose. Legacy food media coverage confirms mainstream category status.

Taste of Home · Four Sigmatic

Four Sigmatic’s New Mushroom Protein Coffee Simplified My Morning Routine

Product feature on Four Sigmatic’s new Mushroom Protein Coffee. Competitor extending into protein-fortified functional coffee category.

ACCESS Newswire · Everyday Dose

Everyday Dose Mushroom Coffee Review 2026: Is the $29 Starter Kit Worth It and What Happens at Month Two

Deep-dive review of Everyday Dose starter kit pricing and month-two subscription experience. Category attention on subscription friction points.

Good Housekeeping · Category

10 best mushroom coffees for an alternative morning pick-me-up, tried and tested

Good Housekeeping roundup of top 10 mushroom coffee brands. Broad category exposure in a mainstream lifestyle title.

WorldHealth.net · Category

4 Leading Mushroom Coffee Brands: Ranked by Flavor, Mushroom Count, and Value

Head-to-head ranking of 4 leading mushroom coffee brands (Ryze, Everyday Dose et al.) across flavor, mushroom count, and value dimensions.

The Tennessean · Category

Feeling jittery from coffee? When experts say you might be overdoing it

Article on coffee jitters and caffeine sensitivity — the exact positioning MUD\WTR’s creative leans on. Category tailwind for “coffee is too much” messaging.