Week of August 3 – August 9, 2026

Generated Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 8:13am PT · Data pulled Monday, August 11, 2026 at 7:59am PT

Northbeam Omni GA4 Meta Klaviyo Daily Stand Gorgias Instagram Google Trends News Apify

⚠ Called to your attention — auto-review

🔴 Kill the UGCArmy sandbox line — $33K at $418 CAC is the single biggest bleed on Meta. conv_pur_sandbox_Trybe-2+3 spent $32,932 for 79 NCs (2.4× the ~$172 Meta target); the WK-31 UGCArmy ads underneath it (AndrewShields $291, AlecVagnozzi $343, RileyWiens $686, Youssef $274) are all statistical KILLs at 0% P(beat). Cut the sandbox, move the ~$30K/wk into conv_mixed_scale_legacy+winners ($165 CAC) and the FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee workhorse ($177 CAC, 91% P on the ingr_mo variant).
🔴 Kill the leftover summer-promo creatives still spending post-promo. mud_wk-30 “$25 off + free frother” static ran $6,297 at $271 CAC, mud_wk-32 “You Burn Out” ran at $698 CAC on $6.8K, and the Taharrabenham summer-promo Reel ran $3,863 at $249 — textbook promo hangover at 1.5–4× target. Pause all promo-tagged creatives today; ~$17K/wk reallocates to the FOUNDER concept.
🟡 Exit trajectory turned worse than the weekly average — watch Mon/Tue. D2C CAC on Aug 8–9 read $125.61 and $145.00 with NCs falling to 257 then 212, vs. a Mon–Fri run of $104–$132 and 273–312 NCs; the week-avg $121.53 is hiding a weekend deterioration. Watch condition: if Aug 10–11 hold above $130 D2C with no promo to blame, that’s the new baseline, not a weekend blip — and the PSL launch tailwind is already spent.
🟡 Concept concentration is a fragility warning on Meta. conv_og_sales_ABO (30.2% of Meta) plus its FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee variants carry ~$300K of trailing spend — roughly half the account rests on one comparison angle. CAC on that concept is holding ($171, -10% 4-wk), but conv_og_costperresult_ASC (same angle, ASC-scaled) is at $197 and +38% 4-wk — the fatigue curve has started. Brief a #2 concept this week; don’t wait for the workhorse to break.
⚪ Three CAC lenses for Shane, one sentence: pulse-legacy Blended $121.53 vs $85 target, tracker D2C $122 vs <$90, blended incl. Amazon $82 vs <$75 — all three above target, all three improved slightly WoW on 9.6% less spend. Nobody should panic off the harshest number or relax off the softest. Read the Amazon lens as understated: Northbeam has reported $0 Amazon ad spend every day since 22 Jul (a broken integration, traced to source on 3 Aug — Amazon orders are fine and still credited ~903 est-NTB new customers this week). At the Jun–Jul run-rate of ~$8,577/wk the honest figure is ~$85.49, not $82.43. It is also why the pulse-legacy and tracker-D2C lenses are the same number this week — with Amazon spend at zero, blended spend equals D2C spend. Somebody needs to fix the Amazon Ads connection inside Northbeam.
⚪ YouTube is a strategic question, not a kill. $21,347 spent at $308 click CAC but $108 survey-implied (10.4% of new-customer influence, 198 implied NCs) — consistent with YouTube’s 12-month 0.46× click-credit prior. Don’t cut on click CAC alone; if the budget decision is real, run a $10K/wk geo holdout for 4 weeks — that’s the only lens that settles it.

Google Trends returned HTML instead of JSON this run (brand/competitive interest charts empty); the CX section is empty because this report was generated locally and GORGIAS_API_URL exists only as a GitHub Actions secret — a credential gap on our side, not a Gorgias outage; GA4 begin_checkout has been degraded since ~May 18 (checkout stage directional only).

✅ Going well

Revenue held at $774K (+0.3%) on 9.6% less spend — MER lifted to 3.33x from 3.01x, and all three CAC lenses ticked down WoW.
PSL launch executed cleanly: /products/psl-bundle went 0 → 6,195 sessions at 10.79% CVR (GA4), corroborated independently by Intelligems at 5,570 sessions / 10.61% — two sensors within ~10%, so the launch number is solid. The three PSL email sends (Early Bird, TWB Newsletter, Public Re-Send to Subs) delivered $119K of the $138.8K weekly email number. Note the two PSL paid landers convert far worse than the PDP — /pages/rise-2-psl-starter-kits 2,228 sessions at 4.48% and /pages/rise-2-psl-tins 564 at 0.58%. That is not a like-for-like comparison (the PDP is warm email/SMS traffic, the rise-2 variants are cold paid), so it is not evidence the landers are broken — but 0.58% on the tins variant is below even the cold-paid norm of ~1.4% and is worth a look this week.
Warm site traffic is converting materially better — warm CVR 3.08% vs. 2.20% prior, homepage +5.2%, /collections/shop +21.3% in Intelligems.
Recent subscription cohorts are running above target — Jan 2026 at 67.1% M1 / 51.5% M2 / 39.4% M3, Feb 2026 at 63.7% M1 — the LTV side of the model is healthy even as first-order CAC pressures.

❌ Going poorly

NCs/day fell to 272 (-8.6% WoW) against a 600 target — the volume gap is the real story behind the flat revenue, and the back half of the week was worse than the front (Aug 9 hit 212 NCs at $145 CAC).
Meta click CAC $243 on 67% of spend; survey lens confirms it at $195 — both readings sit above the ~$120 first-order band, and the top-5 campaigns range $165 to $788 CAC.
Cold paid LPs deteriorated to a fresh low: /pages/rise-2 CVR 1.36% (-19.7% IG WoW), /pages/compare-listicle-og 1.59% (-15.9%) — the prospecting funnel entry is getting colder while warm traffic gets warmer.
55 Meta ads sit in KILL status on 28-day data (including $47K on the ASC-scaled FOUNDER variant at $206 and one $5,428 reach ad with zero NCs) — the account is carrying a lot of dead weight.

💬 Worth discussing

YouTube’s two lenses disagree by ~3x ($308 click vs $108 survey on $21K) — consistent with the 12-month prior but not proof of incrementality. Trade-off: keep spending on faith of the survey signal, or fund a 4-week $10K/wk geo holdout to settle it before Q4 when YouTube’s survey share historically doubles. Worth the test spend?
Google Search reads efficient on clicks ($69) but $214 on the survey — 60% of its NCs come from branded terms at $40. If Search is capturing demand Meta creates, is the $10K/wk on non-brand PMax + Conquesting ($134 / $115 click CAC) worth what it’s actually costing net-net? Playbook prior says no; a brand-holdout would prove it.
Meta account architecture: 30% of spend on one FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee concept is working ($171, trending down) but fragile — do we brief a parallel #2 concept now (creative cost, testing budget) or ride the winner until it breaks?

❓ Not sure yet

Whether Aug 8–9’s CAC spike is a weekend/PSL-launch-tailwind-ending artifact or the new baseline — needs Aug 10–12 daily data to resolve.
Subscription trajectory: net subs -1,923 for the week is consistent with the late-July Recharge billing cycle, but CX volume is unavailable in this run — a local credential gap (GORGIAS_API_URL is CI-only), not a Gorgias outage — so cancellation share can’t be cross-checked here.
Brand-demand direction: Google Trends API returned HTML this run, so both the MUD\WTR interest chart and the Ryze/Four Sigmatic/Everyday Dose/Space Goods competitive chart are empty — Ryze got three earned-media weight-loss placements this week, and we can’t yet see if that moved search interest. Fix the sensor before calling the competitive picture.

Scorecard

13-week trends — solid line is 2026, dashed is 2025 YoY

SPEND · Daily Spend Tracker NEW CUSTOMERS · Daily Spend Tracker (Shopify truth) REVENUE · Omni (Total Revenue) CAC = SPEND ÷ NEW CUSTOMERS D2C + AMAZON CAC LENSES · Tracker monthly tabs (targets <$90 / <$75) CPM/CTR · Northbeam

Volume & Efficiency — Last 12 Weeks

NCs/Day Blended CAC Target

Daily D2C CAC — Last 14 Days (exit trajectory)

Daily D2C CAC $90 Target

$774K

Revenue

↑ 0.3% WoW

Last week: $772K

$232K

Ad Spend

↓ 9.6% WoW

Last week: $257K

3.33x

MER

↑ 11% WoW

Last week: 3.01x

$121.53

Blended CAC

↓ 1.1% WoW

Last week: $122.88 • Target: <$85

$122

D2C CAC (tracker)

↓ 1.1% WoW

Last week: $123 • Target: <$90

$82

Blended CAC incl. Amazon

↓ 1.8% WoW

Last week: $84 • Target: <$75

272/day

New Customers

↓ 8.6% WoW

Last week: 298/day • Target: 600

$53.94

iAOV

↑ 4.6% WoW

Omni rev ÷ orders

3.02%

Site CVR (GA4)

↑ 0.67pt WoW

Target: >2.0%

$27.68

CPM

↓ 0.6% WoW

Last week: $27.86

0.71%

CTR

↔ flat WoW

Last week: 0.71%

CAC — Two Lenses (click vs. survey-implied)

CLICK CAC · Northbeam clicks-only SURVEY CAC · spend ÷ (Fairing share × tracker D2C NCs) · small channels noisy weekly — see the attribution deep dive for the 12-mo view

CAC by channel — Northbeam clicks vs Fairing survey-implied

■ Northbeam (clicks) ■ Fairing (survey-implied)

Channel	Spend	Click NCs	Click CAC	Survey Share	Survey NCs	Survey CAC	Read
Meta	$154,948	638	$243	41.7% ±3.5	794	$195	lenses aligned
Search	$31,040	448	$69	7.6% ±1.9	145	$214	clicks over-credit 3.1× — likely OVER-spending
YouTube	$21,347	69	$308	10.4% ±2.2	198	$108	clicks under-credit 2.9× — likely UNDER-spending
TikTok	$248	2	—	2.6% ±1.1	50	$5	click-invisible — only the survey sees it

Revenue was essentially flat at $774K (+0.3% WoW) on 9.6% less spend ($232K vs $257K), lifting MER to 3.33x from 3.01x. The three CAC lenses read differently: the pulse-legacy Blended CAC (tracker spend ÷ D2C NCs) sits at $121.53 vs. an $85 target, the tracker D2C lens reads $122 vs. its <$90 target, and blended incl. Amazon reads $82 vs. its <$75 target — all three are above target, all three improved slightly WoW. NCs/day fell 8.6% to 272 against a 600 target, and the daily strip shows the exit worse than the entry (Aug 8–9 D2C CAC of $126 and $145 vs. a Mon–Wed run of $114–$132).

D2C Funnel

Full-funnel view

IMPRESSIONS / CTR · Northbeam SESSIONS / ATC / CHECKOUT · GA4 (begin_checkout degraded since ~May 18 — directional) CVR TRUTH · Shopify orders (Omni) ÷ GA4 sessions NEW CUSTOMERS · Daily Spend Tracker

Bar width is log-scaled (real drop-offs are far steeper than any drawing can show) — read the numbers, not the shape. Between stages: the named conversion rate (CTR, ATC rate, etc.), the raw drop-off, and how that rate moved vs. last week. The red band marks this week’s biggest week-over-week deterioration. Sensor lines mark where measurement changes systems. Lanes at the bottom split site traffic by intent (cold paid landing pages vs. everything else).

Sessions fell 5.5% to 135,843 while purchases rose 20.4% to 3,287, pushing GA4 site CVR to 3.02% (+0.67pt WoW). ATC events climbed 17% and checkouts moved in the same direction. New customers — the acquisition-truth numerator — fell 8.6% to 1,904, so NC CVR (Shopify D2C NCs ÷ GA4 sessions) actually dipped from 1.45% to 1.40%; the site-CVR gain is being driven by returning-customer orders (PSL launch, per Intelligems) more than by new-buyer conversion.

Channel Mix▶

Channel Mix

Channel-level performance

CHANNEL SPEND / CAC / NCs · Northbeam (Clicks Only, Cash) BLENDED TOTAL · Daily Spend Tracker

Channel Spend Mix — Last 6 Weeks

Channel	Spend	% Mix	NCs	CAC	ROAS
Facebook Ads	$154,948	67%	638	$243	0.57x
Google Ads	$31,040	13%	448	$69	3.60x
YouTube Ads	$21,347	9%	69	$308	0.49x
Impact (affiliate)	$5,874	3%	90	$65	2.12x
Google Ads Canada	$467	<1%	3	$156	10.5x
TikTok	$248	<1%	2	$149	0.46x
Other (Podcast, Applovin, misc.)	$18,165	8%	654	$28	varies
Total (Daily Stand tracker)	$232,089	100%	1,904	$121.53	3.33x

Meta carried 67% of paid spend ($155K) at a $243 click CAC; the survey lens puts Meta at $195, so both lenses read above the ~$120 first-order Meta band. Google click CAC came in at $69 on $31K, but the survey lens implies $214 — a 3.1× over-credit on clicks consistent with Google’s 12-month pattern of harvesting demand created elsewhere. YouTube shows the opposite gap: $308 click CAC vs. $108 survey-implied on $21K, with the survey lens crediting it for ~10% of new-customer influence.

Post-Purchase Attribution▶

Post-Purchase Attribution

"What led you to purchase today?" — new customers, self-reported (Fairing)

SURVEY · Fairing (question 2864, first orders only) Survey = claimed influence; Northbeam = last click. Divergence is signal, not error — view-heavy channels (YouTube, podcast) and word-of-mouth show up here first.

Click-Invisible Channels — Survey Share, Last 13 Weeks

Meta (~42–52%) omitted for scale — see table

Answer	Responses	Share	Prior Wk	Shift
Facebook or Instagram Ad	317	41.7%	43.3%	-1.6pt
Friend, Family or Colleague	86	11.3%	12.9%	-1.6pt
Other	82	10.8%	9.9%	+0.9pt
YouTube	79	10.4%	10.9%	-0.5pt
Online Search (i.e. Google)	58	7.6%	7.8%	-0.2pt
TikTok	20	2.6%	2.4%	+0.2pt
Someone I Follow On Social Media	16	2.1%	1.7%	+0.5pt
Podcast	15	2%	3.3%	-1.3pt
Healthcare Professional	12	1.6%	0.7%	+0.9pt
Amazon	11	1.4%	0.8%	+0.7pt
TV	11	1.4%	0.8%	+0.7pt
An Article	11	1.4%	0.9%	+0.6pt

Meta stayed the dominant credited source at 41.7% (317 of 760 responses, -1.6pt WoW), followed by word-of-mouth at 11.3% (-1.6pt) and YouTube at 10.4% (-0.5pt). Search held at 7.6%, Podcast dropped from 3.3% to 2.0% (-1.3pt), and TikTok held at 2.6% despite <$250 in spend — consistent with its 12-month "click-invisible" pattern. Sample this week was 760 responses vs. 909 prior, so sub-3% channel shifts sit inside weekly noise.

Meta Deep Dive▶

Meta Deep Dive

13-week trends — Facebook Ads + Facebook Ads Canada

SPEND / CAC / CPM / CTR / THUMBSTOP · Northbeam (Clicks Only) CREATIVE PREVIEWS · Meta Graph API (account 548943215677106)

CPM

$30.40 this week

CTR

0.66% this week

CAC (Northbeam)

$243 this week

New Customers

638 this week

Top 5 Campaigns by Spend

Campaign	Spend	% of Meta	NCs	CAC	ROAS
conv_mixed_scale_legacy+winners	$57,207	37%	347	$165	1.25x
conv_pur_sandbox_Trybe-2+3 (UGCArmy)	$32,932	21%	79	$418	0.12x
conv_pur_scale_winners_cost-cap	$24,691	16%	124	$198	0.26x
conv_pur_sandbox_internal-content	$8,234	5%	20	$409	0.17x
AGS_conv_pur_sandbox_Partners/Internal	$7,794	5%	10	$788	0.10x

Scale & Kill — Meta Ads, Trailing 28 Days

Statistical: SCALE / KILL only when confident vs target CAC · one week is never enough data — WAIT is honest · interactive scatter: Creative Analytics

SCALE 1 WAIT 132 KILL 55target $172 · 95% confidence · 28d window · 34 zero-NC ads off the chart

Each ad — 28-day spend (log) vs new-customer CAC

● scale ● wait ● kill

Status	Ad	Spend 28d	NCs 28d	CAC 28d	P(beats target)
WAIT	conv_og_sales_ABO_testing_FOUNDER_vs MushroomCoffee_OG_July 4 9x	$221,640	1251	$177	15%
WAIT	og_video_calm_mp_partner-SHA_MudvsMushroomCoffee-ShortenedRemix_	$78,191	422	$185	6%
KILL	conv_og_costperresult_ASC_scaling_FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee_OG_J	$47,469	231	$206	0%
KILL	conv_og_sales_ABO_testing_Expensive_OG_Kitchen_July 3 9x16 V1 -	$34,496	162	$213	0%
WAIT	og_video_ingr_mo_partner-sha_what-is-the-difference-between-mudw	$27,527	177	$156	91%
KILL	og_WK-31-20260728_video-48s_Broad_UGCARMY-AndrewShields_trybe=47	$12,200	42	$291	0%
WAIT	og_WK-28-20260720_video-47s_promo_Broad_UGCARMY-AndrewShields_su	$8,760	43	$203	15%
WAIT	og_video_calm_mp_partner-SHA_MudvsMushroomCoffee-ShortenedRemix_	$6,679	34	$198	23%
KILL	mud_wk-30-2026_Row 122_868khma3t_og_static_$25 off + free shippi	$6,297	23	$271	1%
KILL	tof_ogmudwtr_reach_broad_Cory_JoeRogan_mud	$5,898	0	—	0%
KILL	og_WK-31-20260728_video-32s_Broad_UGCARMY-AlecVagnozzi_trybe=25c	$5,699	17	$343	0%
KILL	tof_ogmudwtr_reach_SHA_MushroomCoffeeComparison_TT_version	$5,428	0	$27,141	0%
KILL	og_WK-31-20260728_video-36s_Broad_UGCARMY-RileyWiens_trybe=663c8	$4,693	7	$686	0%
KILL	og_WK-27-20260715_video-34s_cog_broad_UGCARMY-KyrillosYoussef_mu	$4,239	15	$274	3%
WAIT	og_WK-28-20260720_video-14s_promo_Broad_UGCARMY-Taharrabenham_su	$3,863	16	$249	8%
KILL	og_WK-27-20260709_video-30_ingr_mo_UGCARMY-KristalKlune_propriet	$3,494	10	$333	1%

Concept Fatigue — Spend-Weighted CAC by Concept

Concepts grouped from ad names (heuristic) · history accumulates weekly · a rising CAC trend on the dominant concept = fatigue warning

Concept	Weeks Tracked	Spend (wk)	% of Meta	CAC (wk)	CAC 4-wk Trend
conv og sales abo	2	$55,464	30.2%	$171	-10%
og wk 31 20260728	1	$26,273	14.3%	$412	—
conv og costperresult asc	2	$14,001	7.6%	$197	+38%
what s the difference	2	$10,649	5.8%	$227	-2%
pmax prospecting non brand	1	$10,631	5.8%	$142	—
og video calm mp	2	$6,797	3.7%	$174	-12%
mud wk 32 2026	1	$6,775	3.7%	$698	—
mud wk 30 2026	1	$6,326	3.4%	$313	—

Meta click CAC read $243 on $155K spend and 638 NCs; the survey lens puts it at $195 — both above the ~$120 first-order band. CPM held at $30.40 and CTR at 0.66%, so the CAC pressure isn’t coming from auction cost. Concept concentration is high: the top campaign (conv_mixed_scale_legacy+winners) carried 37% of Meta at $165 CAC, and one 28-day workhorse ad (conv_og_sales_ABO…FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee) is $221K of the trailing spend at $177 CAC. The four campaigns behind conv_mixed_scale all sit at $198–$788 CAC, and the sandbox/UGCArmy line took $33K at $418.

Google Ads Deep Dive▶

Google Ads Deep Dive

13-week trends — Google Ads + Google Canada + YouTube Ads

SPEND / CAC / CPM / CTR · Northbeam (Clicks Only)

CPM

$20.35 this week

CTR

0.82% this week

CAC (Northbeam)

$69 this week

New Customers

448 this week

Campaign	Spend	Impressions	CTR	NCs	CAC	ROAS
Search \| Branded	$10,377	25,272	32.5%	261	$40	4.58x
PMax \| Prospecting Non-Brand	$10,631	284,585	1.2%	79	$134	0.52x
Search \| Conquesting	$5,526	50,860	2.7%	48	$115	2.77x
PMax \| Retargeting Branded	$1,838	18,962	3.6%	22	$84	12.3x
Shopping \| Branded + Non-Brand	$1,476	61,967	0.7%	18	$80	0.98x
Search \| Coffee Alternative	$95	826	3.6%	1	$76	24.4x
Search \| Caffeine Sensitivity	$211	640	10.0%	5	$45	17.7x
Search \| Mushroom Coffee	$208	983	6.1%	1	$185	42.9x
Total (Google US)	$30,362	443,135	—	435	$70	3.63x

Google click CAC read $69 on $30K, but 60% of the credited NCs (261 of 435) came from Search ¦ Branded at $40 CAC and 32.5% CTR — that’s trademark-term intent capture. Non-brand PMax spent $10.6K at $134 CAC and Search Conquesting spent $5.5K at $115. On the survey lens, all of Google/Search combined reads $214 CAC (7.6% of new-customer influence), a 3.1× gap from the click number that’s consistent with the 12-month pattern of Search being credited for demand created elsewhere. YouTube ran $21K at a $308 click CAC and $108 survey-implied CAC.

GA4 / Site Performance▶

GA4 / Site Performance

mudwtr.com

SESSIONS / CVR / LANDING PAGES / BRAND DEMAND · GA4 (property 310751693)

Sessions & CVR — Last 13 Weeks

Sessions CVR 2% Floor

Brand Demand — Last 13 Weeks (Direct + Organic Search)

Weekly sessions 13-week avg

Direct + organic-search sessions moved with the overall traffic decline (total sessions -5.5% WoW to 135,843). Google Trends data was unavailable this run — the API returned HTML instead of JSON — so the competitive interest chart is empty this week.

Sessions

135,843

↓ 5.5% WoW

Engagement Rate

86.7%

↑ 0.1pt

Bounce Rate

13.99%

↑ 0.9pt

Purchaser CVR

3.02%

↑ 0.67pt WoW

CVR — GA4 vs. Shopify-Side Sensors

GA4 = purchaser CVR · NC CVR = Shopify D2C new customers ÷ GA4 sessions · INTELLIGEMS = own Shopify-side tracking (orders ÷ sessions)

Sensor	Sessions	Conversions	CVR	WoW	What it measures
GA4 purchaser CVR	135,843	3,287	3.02%	↑ 0.67pt	Site purchases GA4 can see (~10% under)
NC CVR (Shopify truth)	135,843	1,904	1.40%	↓ 0.05pt	New customers per session — acquisition truth
Intelligems (Shopify-side)	109,711	2,698	2.47%	↑ 16.9%	Independent Shopify-side sensor; excludes renewals

Top Landing Pages — GA4 vs. Shopify-Side CVR

Landing Page	GA4 Sessions	GA4 CVR	IG Sessions	IG CVR	IG CVR WoW
/pages/rise-2	30,640	1.27%	30,051	1.36%	↓ 19.7%
/pages/compare-listicle-og	18,709	1.42%	18,020	1.59%	↓ 15.9%
/products/30-servings-tin	18,817	4.45%	14,381	5.00%	↓ 7.1%
/ (homepage)	18,301	2.45%	14,327	2.84%	↑ 5.2%
/products/psl-bundle (new)	6,195	10.79%	5,570	10.61%	new launch
/collections/shop	4,808	3.75%	3,088	5.64%	↑ 21.3%

Traffic Quality — Cold Paid LPs vs. Warm

PAID = rise-2 + listicle LPs (cold prospecting) · WARM = all other traffic · compare each bucket to its own prior week

Cold paid LP sessions

52.1K

38% of site • ↓ 4.6% WoW

Cold paid LP CVR

1.36%

Last week: 1.40%

Warm sessions

83.7K

↓ 6.1% WoW

Warm CVR

3.08%

Last week: 2.20%

Top Landing Pages

Landing Page	Sessions	CVR	Bounce Rate	Engagement	Status
/pages/rise-2	30,640	1.27%	15.2%	84.8%	Cold paid — below floor
/products/30-servings-tin	18,817	4.45%	7.8%	92.2%	Strong PDP
/pages/compare-listicle-og	18,709	1.42%	5.1%	94.9%	Cold paid — below floor
/ (homepage)	18,301	2.45%	15.8%	84.2%	Above floor
/products/psl-bundle	6,195	10.79%	4.0%	96.0%	New launch — standout
/collections/shop	4,808	3.75%	5.4%	94.6%	Strong CVR
/pages/rise-2-psl-starter-kits	2,228	4.48%	6.3%	93.7%	PSL launch LP
/products/coffee-starter-kit	1,994	2.23%	8.9%	91.1%	Above floor

The PSL launch drove the site: /products/psl-bundle went from zero to 6,195 GA4 sessions at 10.79% CVR ($30.6K net revenue in Intelligems), and /pages/rise-2-psl-starter-kits added 2,228 sessions at 4.48%. Warm entry points broadly improved — /collections/shop CVR +21.3% WoW (5.64% IG), homepage +5.2% (2.84% IG), the “Other” bucket +43.9% in Intelligems — while the two cold-paid prospecting LPs moved the other way: /pages/rise-2 CVR fell to 1.36% (-19.7% IG WoW, a fresh low) and /pages/compare-listicle-og to 1.59% (-15.9%). Cold paid LPs held 38% of site sessions but converted at 1.36% vs. warm at 3.08% — different-intent buckets, so read each against its own prior week.

Subscription Health▶

Subscription Health

Active subscribers and net change (Recharge billing-cycle aligned)

ACTIVE SUBS / NET CHANGE · Omni (Total Subscribers / Net Subscribers)

Active Subscribers — Last 13 Weeks

Total Active Net Change / Week

Subscriber Retention by Cohort

Cohort	Month 1	Month 2	Month 3	Month 4	Month 5	Month 6
	Target: 61%	Target: 45%	Target: 36%	Target: 30%	Target: 25%	Target: 21%
Apr 2025	58.2%	42.1%	33.5%	28.4%	24.1%	20.8%
May 2025	59.4%	43.0%	34.2%	29.0%	24.7%	21.3%
Jun 2025	57.8%	41.5%	33.1%	28.0%	23.8%	20.5%
Jul 2025	60.5%	44.8%	35.2%	29.6%	25.0%	21.7%
Aug 2025	59.8%	43.5%	34.9%	29.3%	24.9%	21.4%
Sep 2025	60.1%	44.2%	35.8%	30.1%	25.4%	22.1%
Oct 2025	62.3%	46.6%	36.7%	31.3%	26.8%	—
Nov 2025	62.8%	46.3%	38.0%	31.8%	26.2%	—
Dec 2025	61.4%	47.9%	38.8%	31.5%	—	—
Jan 2026	67.1%	51.5%	39.4%	—	—	—
Feb 2026	63.7%	48.2%	—	—	—	—
Mar 2026	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—

Active subscribers closed the week at 105,690, down from 107,250 on Aug 3 — net subs were negative every day (-190 to -363 daily, ~ -1,923 for the week), consistent with the late-July/early-August Recharge billing cycle. New subs ran 191–296/day (1,690 for the week) against cancellations queued in the same window. Recent cohorts continue to run above target (Jan 2026 at 67.1% M1 / 51.5% M2 / 39.4% M3, Feb 2026 at 63.7% M1 / 48.2% M2), while Apr–Jun 2025 cohorts sit slightly below targets in earlier months.

Email & SMS▶

Email & SMS

Campaign + flow performance

CAMPAIGNS / OPENS / CLICKS / REVENUE · Klaviyo API (conversion metric PaY7ks)

Email List Growth — Last 12 Weeks

Total Subscribers Net New / Week

Campaigns Sent

This week (PSL launch)

Total Recipients

1.44M

Across sends

Total Email Revenue

$138.8K

~18% of Omni revenue

Avg Open Rate

54.0%

Well above benchmark

Send Date	Campaign	Recipients	Open Rate	Click Rate	Revenue
Aug 3	Costco Awareness	21,490	58.7%	0.53%	$145
Aug 4	PSL Early Bird Launch	75,867	53.7%	1.75%	$46,695
Aug 4	PSL Early Launch (Ambassador)	1,136	61.7%	4.80%	$30
Aug 5	TWB Newsletter	210,737	49.7%	0.69%	$36,987
Aug 5	PSL Public Launch	291,173	53.9%	0.39%	$5,670
Aug 7	PSL Public Launch Re-Send (Subs)	75,261	52.1%	1.12%	$35,646
Aug 7	PSL Public Launch Re-Send (Leads)	292,104	53.1%	0.30%	$3,341
Aug 8	PSL Push, Non-Subs	292,057	51.4%	0.31%	$2,364
Aug 9	Target BOGO 50 Offer	85,441	55.6%	0.93%	$7,934

Nine PSL-launch sends produced $138.8K of email revenue (~18% of Omni) at a 54% average open rate. Three sends carried the bulk: PSL Early Bird ($46.7K, 1.75% CTR to 76K recipients), TWB Newsletter ($37.0K, 210K recipients), and the PSL Public Launch Re-Send to Subs ($35.6K, 1.12% CTR to 75K recipients) — together 86% of weekly email revenue. The three broadest sends (PSL Public Launch and both non-sub pushes at 291K/292K recipients each) opened at 51–54% but clicked at 0.30–0.39% and produced $2.4K–$5.7K each.

Instagram Organic▶

Instagram Organic

@drinkmudwtr

FOLLOWERS / POSTS / REACH · Meta Graph API (IG business account 17841407401053372) · Supermetrics retired for IG as of Jul 28 2026

Follower Growth — Last 12 Weeks

Total Followers Net New / Week

Followers

384,477

1,844 lifetime posts

Posts This Week

Total Reach

15.0K

3.9% of follower base

Total Engagement

399

Posts This Week

Date	Type	Caption	Reach	Views	Likes	Comments	Shares	Saves	Link
Aug 3	REELS	It's back. The pumpkin spice latte you missed all year returns August 5…	5,150	6,392	51	14	48	14	View →
Aug 5	REELS	comment "Pumpkin" to win 25% off. The first breath you take each morning…	2,130	2,745	39	16	8	7	View →
Aug 5	REELS	Comment PUMPKIN. Somewhere out there, a barista is charging you seven dollars…	1,959	2,676	26	20	4	0	View →
Aug 6	FEED	The pumpkin spice latte grew up and got its life together. No espresso…	1,418	3,292	37	6	7	8	View →
Aug 7	FEED	It's called Angry Pumpkins. You launch pumpkins at the villains of the season…	3,050	6,518	46	8	7	2	View →
Aug 8	FEED	Pumpkin Spice Latte doesn't have to have a trade-off.	1,294	2,135	16	2	0	5	View →

Six posts hit 15.0K total reach (3.9% of the 384K follower base) — the follower base is 200× the weekly reach, so organic distribution stays a small fraction of audience. The Aug 3 PSL teaser Reel led on reach (5,150) and shares (48), and the Aug 7 “Angry Pumpkins” carousel followed at 3,050 reach / 6,518 views. Two Aug 5 “comment PUMPKIN” Reels drove elevated comment activity (16 and 20 comments) tied to a 25% promo entry.

Industry News▶

Industry News

Web search · Last 7 days · MUD\WTR + Ryze + Four Sigmatic + Everyday Dose + Space Goods

SEARCH INTEREST · google-trends-api (US, past 90d) · API failed this run NEWS · Google News RSS REDDIT · Reddit JSON (search across /r/biohackers /r/nootropics /r/coffee /r/tea)

MUD\WTR Brand Interest — Last 13 Weeks (Google Trends)

Data unavailable this run — Google Trends API returned HTML instead of JSON

Competitive Search Interest — Last 13 Weeks (Google Trends, US)

Data unavailable this run

Five news mentions surfaced this week — three of them Ryze (a brand-mascot campaign in Little Black Book and two Diario AS pieces positioning Ryze around weight loss / weight management) plus one Oklahoman category piece on coffee jitters that mentioned Everyday Dose. Zero MUD\WTR-branded news mentions and zero brand mentions across the tracked Reddit subs this week. Google Trends returned HTML rather than JSON on this run, so the brand and competitive interest charts are empty.

Little Black Book · Ryze

RYZE's Mushroom Mascot Finds the Magic in Feeling Better Every Day

Coverage of Ryze's brand mascot campaign positioning mushroom coffee as an everyday wellness ritual. Published Jul 29, 2026.

Diario AS · Ryze

Ryze Weight Loss: The Mushroom Coffee That May Help Support Sustainable Weight Management

Editorial coverage from Diario AS positioning Ryze as a weight-management adjacent product. Weight-loss framing is a category trend also seen in GLP-1 targeted creative from MUD\WTR.

Diario AS · Ryze

Ryze Coffee Reviews Weight Loss

A second Diario AS piece within the same week reinforcing the weight-loss positioning for Ryze. Signal: competitor is leaning into the GLP-1/weight-management narrative in earned media.

The Oklahoman · Everyday Dose (category)

Feeling jittery from coffee? When experts say you might be overdoing it

Mainstream category coverage of coffee jitters and lower-caffeine alternatives. Everyday Dose mentioned. Published Jul 28 — 14 days old but still driving category awareness.

MUD\WTR

No news mentions detected this week

Google News RSS returned zero MUD\WTR-specific stories for the Aug 3–9 window. Reddit search across /r/biohackers, /r/nootropics, /r/coffee, /r/tea also returned zero brand mentions this week.